Climate mitigation forestry—temporal trade-offs
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract The 1.5 °C target for global warming calls evaluating short-term (30–50 years) climate change mitigation with different forests usage. In the current scientific literature and in public debate, there are contrasting views on how should be managed to maximize total benefit, including use of products changes carbon pools. Three major factors influence conclusions studies: (a) time horizon, (b) site productivity, (c) substitution calculations. Here we show dependency among these by an analysis four harvest scenarios: 95%, 60%, 40% 0% growth, which compared a business as usual scenario (80%). analyses made five counties Sweden, covers wide range forest productivities, from 2.5 m 3 ha ?1 yr (north) 11.5 (south). results show: Reduced levels provide increased benefits short scales (at least 50 years). Increased harvesting level is counterproductive both long term. potential effect balance no-harvest counties, larger (1.1–16 times) than expected emissions all other anthropogenic activities until 2045. (d) Short-term reduced largest highly productive forests. Smaller but more long-lasting can obtained aiming at reductions less (e) Strategies focused need adapted future development growth. If effects become higher, will beneficial after 2050 high However, if decrease, plausible desired development, low strategies preferred short- long-term perspectives. We conclude that even moderate would substantial benefits.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Environmental Research Letters
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1748-9326']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac30fa